Gold price forecast – US jobs data to shape near-term trend, setup on XAU/USD

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If nonfarm payrolls figures prove lackluster and fall well short of expectations, a March rate cut might be back on the table. Under these circumstances, we could observe a sharp retracement in US treasury yields and the US dollar. This scenario is likely to foster a constructive environment for gold in the near term.

On the other hand, if NFP numbers beat consensus estimates by a wide margin, there’s potential for further reduction of dovish wagers on the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy outlook. In this scenario, bond yields and the greenback could accelerate to the upside, weighing on the precious metals complex. In this context, bullion could find itself in a precarious position in February.

Gold price technical analysis

Gold climbed on Thursday, pushing past the $2,050 barrier and coming within a hair’s breadth of breaking $2,065, a key ceiling. With the bulls reasserting control, this resistance could soon be overcome. If that scenario plays out, a rally toward $2,085 is possible. On further strength, the focus will turn to $2,150.

Conversely, if buying interest fades and XAU/USD pivots lower, it’s vital for traders to watch the $2,050 level for bearish activity. If this area fails to offer support, a drop toward the 50-day simple moving average may unfold, followed by a possible retest of $2,005. Below this floor, all eyes will be on $1,990.

Gold price daily chart



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